Addressing the Dangers of Potentially Above Average Atlantic Hurricanes
CEE Distinguished Professor Auroop Ganguly and CEE Professor Qin Chen voice opposing views on whether a new categorical system for hurricanes is necessary, as they grow stronger and intensify quicker. They also offer insight into how to prepare for a more intense and severe Atlantic hurricane season.
This article originally appeared on Northeastern Global News. It was published by Cynthia McCormick Hibbert. Main photo: Professor Auroop Ganguly says rating hurricanes based on wind speed alone does not consider other catastrophic factors, such as flooding potential. Photo by Matthew Modoono/Northeastern University
Should we add a Category 6 hurricane to the Saffir-Simpson scale? Experts weigh in
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting an above-average Atlantic hurricane season from June 1 through Nov. 30.
As hurricanes intensify, is it time to overhaul the rating system and add new categories? Satellite Image: NOAA
A Northeastern researcher says the forecast of six to 10 hurricanes with winds of at least 74 mph—including three to five major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher—only tells part of the story.
The traditional Saffir-Simpson scale categorizes hurricanes on a 1 to 5 rating system based on maximum sustained wind speed, with a Category 5 bearing winds of at least 157 mph.
But as hurricanes intensify in severity, it might be time to rethink the rating system, says Auroop Ganguly, Northeastern distinguished professor of civil and environmental engineering.
“I agree with many meteorologists that the current way of categorizing hurricanes needs an overhaul,” he says.
“The current almost exclusive focus on wind speed does not place enough emphasis, for example, on the important flood-generating potential of hurricanes,” Ganguly says.
Hurricane Helene, which landed in September as a Category 4 hurricane, dumped more than 30 inches of rain on parts of the Southeastern U.S. and swept away children and grandparents, killing 176 people.
Hurricane winds have also grown in intensity, with Hurricane Milton in October intensifying in “explosive” fashion over the Gulf of Mexico, increasing wind speeds by 95 miles per hour to 180 miles per hour in a 24-hour period, according to the Florida Climate Center.
Q. Jim Chen, professor of marine and environmental sciences, says hurricanes are growing stronger and intensifying quicker. Photo by Matthew Modoono/Northeastern University
“Hurricanes are becoming stronger and intensifying quicker,” says Qin Jim Chen, professor of civil and environmental engineering and marine and environmental sciences. But he says the category of a hurricane is “not the most important factor regarding its impact.”
“A Category 1 hurricane can generate a storm surge in an estuary equivalent to the surge typically seen in a Category 3 hurricane making landfall on a straight coastline. Hurricane Isaac in 2012 is a good example,” Chen says.
“I do not think it is necessary to create a new category for the strongest storms because Category 5 hurricanes are already so destructive if they make landfall,” he says.
Read full story at Northeastern Global News